Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -410 COLU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -7.4 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -8.9 (+9.1) | 143.9 (-13.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -8.9 (+9.1) | 144.9 (-14.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -8.9 (+9.1) | 145.8 (-15.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -9.2 (+8.8) | 142.9 (-12.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 17-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#62) | 6.4 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#32) | 1.49 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#28) | 1.43 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#70) | 0.560 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | COLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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