Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -115 UCI -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -2.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -2.2 (-3.2) | 139.3 (+7.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -1.6 (-2.6) | 134.1 (+12.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -1.4 (-2.4) | 135.3 (+11.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -2.8 (-3.8) | 139.2 (+7.8) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#124) | 0.7 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#107) | 0.28 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#108) | 0.68 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#105) | 0.521 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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