Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -6500 AMER +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +44 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -22.8 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -21.3 (+22.7) | 150.1 (-4.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -19.1 (+24.9) | 151.9 (-5.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -20.7 (+23.3) | 153.4 (-7.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -21.2 (+22.8) | 152.6 (-6.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2024 | UVA 63 – 58 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#33) | -4.6 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#37) | -0.61 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#35) | -0.96 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#67) | 0.470 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 41.7% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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