Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NORF +400 UCI -535 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +19 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -5.1 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -4.9 (-14.1) | 135.4 (+23.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -4.4 (-14.6) | 132.8 (+26.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -4.2 (-14.8) | 131.9 (+27.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -4.4 (-14.6) | 134.8 (+24.2) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#229) | 0.9 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#283) | 0.58 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#282) | 0.83 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#271) | 0.539 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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