Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -2100 PENN +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -16.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -16.8 (-12.8) | 144.6 (+17.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -15.3 (-11.3) | 142.3 (+19.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -16.7 (-12.7) | 143.6 (+18.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -16.9 (-12.9) | 143.3 (+18.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2024 | GMU 85 – 53 PENN |
| Nov 13, 2021 | GMU 87 – 66 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 17-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#83) | -5.2 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#42) | -0.33 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#51) | -0.54 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#53) | 0.487 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 37.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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