Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -9000 JMU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +29 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -25.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -19.0 (+10.0) | 160.9 (+16.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -21.9 (+7.1) | 158.3 (+18.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -24.6 (+4.4) | 156.8 (+20.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -24.4 (+4.6) | 157.2 (+19.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#28) | -4.6 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#26) | -0.41 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.36 (#21) | -0.70 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#46) | 0.468 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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