Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -30.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 179.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -1200 LIU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -28.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -27.3 (-12.3) | 165.0 (-2.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -22.8 (-7.8) | 166.3 (-3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -26.1 (-11.1) | 164.5 (-1.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -26.4 (-11.4) | 166.0 (-3.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 10-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.4 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#9) | -2.6 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#46) | -0.21 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#55) | -0.29 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#56) | 0.497 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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