Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -115 OMA -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +18 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -0.9 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -1.4 (+19.4) | 146.0 (+6.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -1.2 (+19.2) | 144.0 (+8.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -1.3 (+19.3) | 146.3 (+5.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -1.4 (+19.4) | 145.0 (+7.0) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-3 |
| Home | 8-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#183) | 0.2 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#249) | -0.47 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#236) | -0.75 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#246) | 0.457 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.0% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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