Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | JOES +270 TEX -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -10.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -7.2 (-1.8) | 142.9 (-17.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -7.3 (-1.7) | 144.8 (-19.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -7.1 (-1.9) | 145.2 (-20.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -6.7 (-2.3) | 144.5 (-19.5) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#175) | 10.6 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#180) | 0.79 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#257) | 1.07 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#137) | 0.519 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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