Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -100000 CSUF +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +33 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -26.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -25.9 (+7.1) | 133.3 (-6.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -23.0 (+10.0) | 133.1 (-6.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -24.4 (+8.6) | 133.1 (-6.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -26.6 (+6.4) | 133.3 (-6.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 1-19 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-11 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#23) | -7.2 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#134) | -0.76 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#121) | -1.24 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#162) | 0.491 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 60.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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