Cal State Bakersfield
Roadrunners
73
–
76
OT
FINAL
Neutral
Homewood Suites Classic
Florida International
Panthers
Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB +100 FIU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | FIU -0.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -1.1 (-4.1) | 139.0 (+10.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -0.9 (-3.9) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -1.5 (-4.5) | 139.5 (+9.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -0.8 (-3.8) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#203) | -1.7 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#209) | -2.33 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#219) | -3.00 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#232) | 0.379 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 21.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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