Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MONM +105 PRES -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +10 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | PRES -10.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -7.6 (-2.4) | 138.9 (-6.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -5.6 (-4.4) | 136.8 (-4.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -7.9 (-2.1) | 138.3 (-6.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -8.1 (-1.9) | 138.2 (-6.2) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#315) | 2.0 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#350) | 0.73 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.35 (#346) | 1.03 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.346 (#337) | 0.546 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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