Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UIC +110 ECU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +17 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UIC -5.9 (-22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.5 (-40.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -2.7 (-19.7) | 152.5 (-25.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -2.6 (-19.6) | 152.1 (-25.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -2.2 (-19.2) | 151.5 (-24.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -3.1 (-20.1) | 152.2 (-25.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#125) | -3.0 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#157) | -0.57 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#173) | -1.69 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#136) | 0.494 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 25.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 16.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 36.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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