Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | KC -135 UALB +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UALB -7.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UALB -6.2 (+4.2) | 133.8 (-1.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UALB -5.4 (+3.4) | 131.4 (+0.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UALB -7.4 (+5.4) | 132.3 (-0.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UALB -6.6 (+4.6) | 133.3 (-1.3) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#293) | 1.0 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#315) | 1.23 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#308) | 1.65 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#291) | 0.565 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.3% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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