Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PRST +120 STMN -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +26 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | PRST -2.8 (-28.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRST -0.5 (-26.5) | 155.9 (+0.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -0.5 (-25.5) | 152.4 (+3.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -0.5 (-25.5) | 155.4 (+0.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -0.6 (-26.6) | 157.1 (-1.1) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | STMN 76 – 70 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-0 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#85) | 2.6 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#140) | 0.28 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#118) | 1.00 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#96) | 0.479 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 45.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.9% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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