Betting Lines
| Spread | SCST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | IUIN +180 SCST -220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IUIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCST +10 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SCST -5.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCST -4.7 (-5.3) | 141.0 (-7.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCST -4.7 (-5.3) | 142.6 (-8.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCST -3.2 (-6.8) | 142.1 (-8.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SCST -3.8 (-6.2) | 142.8 (-8.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IUIN | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#330) | -5.5 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.33 (#354) | -1.80 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.53 (#358) | -2.72 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#314) | 0.273 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IUIN | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 22.0% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 60.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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