Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | YALE -750 FAIR +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +25 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -16.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -11.6 (+13.4) | 137.9 (+19.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -12.2 (+12.8) | 136.6 (+20.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -13.7 (+11.3) | 139.0 (+18.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -13.0 (+12.0) | 138.1 (+18.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | FAIR 75 – 71 YALE |
| Dec 13, 2022 | YALE 77 – 64 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-8 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-0 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#76) | -9.2 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#112) | -2.23 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#138) | -4.11 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#124) | 0.439 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 23.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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