Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +250 UAB -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +1 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -3.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -2.2 (-1.2) | 144.8 (+22.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -1.8 (-0.8) | 144.4 (+22.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -2.6 (-1.6) | 146.4 (+20.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -2.4 (-1.4) | 146.3 (+20.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#172) | -3.0 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#224) | -1.33 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#167) | -2.50 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#321) | 0.483 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 15.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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