Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | JXST +130 JMU -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -0.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -0.2 (-5.8) | 144.6 (-8.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -2.7 (-3.3) | 141.2 (-5.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -0.2 (-5.8) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -0.1 (-6.1) | 146.2 (-10.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JXST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#128) | 3.2 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#174) | 0.09 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#207) | 0.47 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#92) | 0.461 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JXST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 80.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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