Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | DEP -5000 NIU +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +46 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -18.7 (+27.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -17.7 (+28.3) | 136.7 (+13.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -15.6 (+30.4) | 139.2 (+10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -19.8 (+26.2) | 138.8 (+11.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -19.8 (+26.2) | 135.9 (+14.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2023 | NIU 89 – 79 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-8 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#88) | -7.2 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#119) | -1.98 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#137) | -2.92 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#285) | 0.313 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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