Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UNA -600 ULM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -12.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -8.6 (+3.4) | 144.2 (-8.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -8.8 (+3.2) | 144.9 (-8.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -9.5 (+2.5) | 147.5 (-11.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -9.0 (+3.0) | 147.3 (-11.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 3-15 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-11 |
| Away | 7-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#124) | -9.4 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#214) | -2.99 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#163) | -5.02 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#192) | 0.351 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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