Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | GW -300 UL +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | GW -17.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -12.2 (-3.2) | 148.4 (+8.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -12.1 (-3.1) | 145.4 (+11.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -15.2 (-6.2) | 145.9 (+11.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -13.9 (-4.9) | 147.4 (+9.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-12 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#108) | -13.5 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#55) | -2.87 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#61) | -4.23 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#58) | 0.392 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 25.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 58.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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