Betting Lines
| Spread | QUC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | QUC -155 UPST +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | QUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | QUC +24 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -3.6 (+27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -1.3 (+25.3) | 146.2 (+25.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -1.4 (+25.4) | 151.6 (+20.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -1.4 (+25.4) | 148.6 (+23.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -1.2 (+25.2) | 146.2 (+25.8) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | QUC | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 4-10 |
| Away | 9-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 85.5 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#340) | -8.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#289) | -1.89 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#312) | -2.52 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.368 (#323) | 0.457 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | QUC | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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