Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -140 WIS +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +6 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -9.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -6.0 (-12.0) | 149.3 (+6.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -4.9 (-10.9) | 151.6 (+4.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -5.6 (-11.6) | 150.9 (+5.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -6.2 (-12.2) | 148.9 (+7.1) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 20.8 (#7) | 11.3 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#7) | 3.06 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.01 (#3) | 4.97 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.763 (#6) | 0.692 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 36.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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