Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UGA +210 SJU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -4.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -2.5 (+5.5) | 149.7 (-20.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -2.9 (+5.9) | 149.6 (-20.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -1.8 (+4.8) | 151.5 (-22.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -2.4 (+5.4) | 150.2 (-21.2) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 18-2 |
| Home | 15-3 | 19-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#54) | 14.1 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#62) | 1.93 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#82) | 3.51 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#74) | 0.640 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 43.1% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 36.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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