Betting Lines
| Spread | WOF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PRST +200 WOF -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | WOF -4.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WOF -2.6 (+7.6) | 149.3 (+3.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WOF -3.3 (+8.3) | 146.9 (+6.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -2.6 (+7.6) | 145.1 (+7.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -2.2 (+7.2) | 149.4 (+3.6) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#249) | -0.1 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#245) | -0.08 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#231) | 0.77 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#282) | 0.435 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 11.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 61.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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