Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | STAN +164 UNC -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +5 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -4.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+39.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.8 (+7.8) | 141.1 (+43.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.3 (+8.3) | 140.6 (+44.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.7 (+7.7) | 138.8 (+46.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.3 (+7.3) | 141.0 (+44.0) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2025 | STAN 72 – 71 UNC |
| Dec 1, 2020 | UNC 67 – 63 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-6 | 18-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#76) | 15.8 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#42) | 3.25 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#58) | 4.09 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#33) | 0.636 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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