Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | WRST +135 USF -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | WRST -6.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -3.5 (-4.5) | 145.2 (-0.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -2.3 (-3.3) | 146.5 (-1.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -4.1 (-5.1) | 148.5 (-3.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -3.1 (-4.1) | 148.5 (-3.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#114) | -3.1 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#74) | -0.37 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#75) | -0.75 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#43) | 0.464 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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