Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +350 UVM -460 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -3.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -3.2 (+4.2) | 130.4 (+2.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -3.9 (+4.9) | 130.0 (+3.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -2.9 (+3.9) | 129.1 (+3.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -2.8 (+3.8) | 128.7 (+4.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-3 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#330) | -6.2 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#303) | -0.19 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.19 (#319) | -0.54 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#270) | 0.504 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.4% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 24.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.1% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.