Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -162 UCF +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +9 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | KSU -1.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -0.9 (-9.9) | 161.0 (-6.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -1.1 (-10.1) | 158.7 (-3.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -0.0 (-9.0) | 159.5 (-4.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.2 (-8.8) | 159.5 (-4.5) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | UCF 80 – 76 KSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | KSU 77 – 52 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#64) | 11.9 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#74) | 3.27 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#75) | 4.03 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#82) | 0.638 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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