Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MD -260 VILL +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MD -16.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -10.7 (-9.7) | 142.2 (+8.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -8.5 (-7.5) | 139.6 (+11.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -12.8 (-11.8) | 143.2 (+7.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -11.5 (-10.5) | 144.2 (+6.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | VILL 57 – 40 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#12) | 1.0 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#92) | -0.99 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#78) | -2.02 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#110) | 0.437 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 40.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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