Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ +130 SDST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +11 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -10.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -7.3 (-3.7) | 146.3 (-15.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -6.8 (-4.2) | 145.6 (-14.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -8.0 (-3.0) | 150.2 (-19.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -7.3 (-3.7) | 147.6 (-16.6) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#319) | 1.5 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#350) | 1.30 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.93 (#339) | 2.63 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#334) | 0.524 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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