Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -105 LSU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +7 | 211 | Lost |
| Massey | LSU -5.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+68.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -3.7 (-3.3) | 140.5 (+70.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -3.3 (-3.7) | 143.5 (+67.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -3.4 (-3.6) | 144.0 (+67.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -2.6 (-4.4) | 142.7 (+68.3) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#117) | 8.5 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#49) | 2.54 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#52) | 4.26 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.697 (#12) | 0.611 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 41.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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