Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | GCU +210 USU -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | USU -8.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.3 (+16.3) | 139.7 (+18.3) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.3 (+16.3) | 141.6 (+16.4) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -6.1 (+16.1) | 142.8 (+15.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.1 (+15.1) | 141.9 (+16.1) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | USU 74 – 69 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#98) | 17.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#97) | 3.03 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#94) | 3.56 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#120) | 0.645 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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