Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -118 PAC -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +17 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -1.8 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -1.8 (-15.2) | 139.2 (+5.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -1.5 (-15.5) | 140.4 (+4.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -1.9 (-15.1) | 141.2 (+3.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -2.1 (-14.9) | 139.0 (+6.0) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | PAC 84 – 53 ORST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ORST 79 – 65 PAC |
| Jan 12, 2025 | ORST 91 – 55 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#211) | 2.4 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#171) | 0.35 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#166) | 0.58 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#197) | 0.525 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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