Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -3000 ALCN +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +17 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -22.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -14.7 (+2.3) | 139.9 (-18.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -15.7 (+1.3) | 137.0 (-16.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -17.7 (-0.7) | 136.4 (-15.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -16.6 (+0.4) | 140.8 (-19.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 7-11 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#198) | -17.4 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#81) | -1.85 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#169) | -3.28 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#30) | 0.461 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 34.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 60.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 58.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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