Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -320 MOST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +10 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -1.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -2.3 (-12.3) | 146.5 (-14.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -2.7 (-12.7) | 146.9 (-14.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -2.8 (-12.8) | 147.2 (-15.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -2.3 (-12.3) | 148.0 (-16.0) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 2-18 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#158) | -1.2 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#93) | -0.39 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#114) | -0.82 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#181) | 0.511 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 34.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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