Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MERC -112 CCSU -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -0.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -1.7 (+19.7) | 133.9 (+6.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -2.2 (+20.2) | 132.5 (+7.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -2.0 (+20.0) | 131.8 (+8.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -0.8 (+18.8) | 132.9 (+7.1) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | CCSU 80 – 78 MERC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | CCSU 73 – 63 MERC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CCSU 62 – 50 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-14 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#294) | -4.5 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#338) | -0.25 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#338) | -0.73 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#334) | 0.492 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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