Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -300 LONG +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -2.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -0.8 (+14.2) | 133.5 (+19.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -1.8 (+13.2) | 136.2 (+16.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -0.5 (+14.5) | 134.2 (+18.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -1.1 (+13.9) | 134.8 (+18.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 7-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 10-2 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#106) | 1.7 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#115) | 1.91 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#85) | 2.34 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#29) | 0.544 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 40.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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