Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -250 MTSU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -2.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.0 (+9.0) | 147.9 (+1.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -3.7 (+7.3) | 145.2 (+3.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.3 (+9.7) | 147.6 (+1.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -1.6 (+9.4) | 150.4 (-1.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#109) | 2.0 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#37) | 1.11 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#43) | 1.61 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#108) | 0.536 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 43.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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