Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | DEL +360 YALE -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEL +6 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -14.2 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -9.9 (+15.9) | 151.3 (+42.7) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -12.1 (+18.1) | 150.5 (+43.5) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -9.0 (+15.0) | 150.4 (+43.6) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -10.3 (+16.3) | 150.3 (+43.7) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEL | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-20 | 22-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-1 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-0 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#274) | 8.1 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#250) | 0.85 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#236) | 0.71 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#275) | 0.531 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEL | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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