Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | BC -650 ODU +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +30 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BC -14.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -11.6 (+18.4) | 140.3 (-6.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -13.4 (+16.6) | 139.8 (-5.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -12.1 (+17.9) | 139.7 (-5.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -12.5 (+17.5) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-9 |
| Away | 0-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#225) | -17.0 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#189) | -2.86 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#198) | -4.12 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#108) | 0.299 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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