Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -195 DRKE +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +11 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -0.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -0.5 (-11.5) | 139.2 (+11.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -1.6 (-9.4) | 133.7 (+17.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -0.7 (-10.3) | 136.5 (+14.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -0.3 (-11.3) | 138.0 (+13.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 60.2 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#64) | 6.9 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#6) | 2.35 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.73 (#7) | 4.14 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#32) | 0.634 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 38.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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