Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -425 MEM +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +2 | 196 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -4.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+51.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -1.3 (-3.3) | 141.2 (+54.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.0 (-6.0) | 140.5 (+55.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.5 (-4.5) | 144.3 (+51.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -1.8 (-3.8) | 142.9 (+53.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#10) | 13.8 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#106) | 4.07 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#106) | 6.24 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#212) | 0.793 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 45.9% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 41.7% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.4% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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