Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ISU +150 AUB -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -12.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -7.7 (+5.7) | 143.4 (+20.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -8.1 (+6.1) | 145.8 (+18.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -7.4 (+5.4) | 144.4 (+19.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -8.5 (+6.5) | 140.3 (+23.7) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#41) | 22.7 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#130) | 2.87 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#132) | 4.63 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#261) | 0.734 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 55.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 2.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 64.0% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 39.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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