Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -500 DAY +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +2 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -13.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (+20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.8 (-4.8) | 154.7 (+27.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -8.0 (-6.0) | 153.1 (+28.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -8.0 (-6.0) | 153.3 (+28.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.9 (-4.9) | 153.0 (+29.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#7) | 6.0 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#25) | 2.09 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#15) | 2.87 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.723 (#11) | 0.648 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.16 | 2.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 10.3% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 36.8% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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