Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | SC +170 XAV -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -0.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.8 (-8.2) | 143.7 (-2.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.4 (-8.6) | 144.4 (-3.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -1.3 (-7.7) | 145.7 (-4.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -1.2 (-7.8) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#96) | 5.2 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#193) | 2.37 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#207) | 3.67 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#117) | 0.576 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 43.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 2.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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