Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -125 MASS +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -3.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -3.2 (-4.2) | 154.8 (-19.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -2.1 (-3.1) | 153.6 (-18.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -2.5 (-3.5) | 151.2 (-16.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -2.3 (-3.3) | 153.8 (-18.8) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BUF 86 – 82 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#179) | -0.7 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#133) | -0.15 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#141) | -0.15 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#118) | 0.484 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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