Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -260 HAMP +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | HAMP -3.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -2.5 (-2.5) | 131.3 (-8.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -0.8 (-4.2) | 128.7 (-5.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -1.7 (-3.3) | 130.7 (-7.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -2.3 (-2.7) | 131.8 (-8.8) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#317) | -5.5 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#351) | -1.71 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.95 (#339) | -2.45 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#308) | 0.464 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.8% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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