Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BALL +135 EKU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -12.9 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -7.7 (+9.7) | 141.3 (-17.3) | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -8.2 (+10.2) | 143.1 (-19.1) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -8.8 (+10.8) | 144.1 (-20.1) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -8.6 (+10.6) | 141.4 (-17.4) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#311) | 4.5 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.05 (#360) | 1.32 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.53 (#363) | 1.78 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.336 (#347) | 0.575 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 39.8% | 9.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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